YouGov MRP shows battle for the British Right remains wide open

Posted: 24th September 2026, by Trafalgar Analytics.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Think Tank: YouGov MRP shows battle for the British Right remains wide open, says Trafalgar Analytics

LONDON, 24th September 2026 — Trafalgar Analytics has responded to YouGov’s September 2026 Westminster MRP, arguing that the projection falls within the range of reasonable outcomes identified in Trafalgar’s 2025 Electoral Data Review.

YouGov’s central projection places Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123. Although this gives the Conservatives a narrow seven-seat advantage over Reform, it does not settle which party will lead the British Right into the next general election. This is a snapshot of an unresolved, ongoing political realignment, and a "Unite the Right" pact would not resolve this impasse either.

A fragmented Parliament

YouGov’s MRP projects the following result if a general election were held now:

Labour: 241 seats, down 170 from 2024.

Conservatives: 130 seats, up nine.

Reform UK: 123 seats, up 118.

Liberal Democrats: 71 seats, down one.

SNP: 40 seats, up 31.

Plaid Cymru: 15 seats, up 11.

Greens: nine seats, up five.

The Conservatives are therefore narrowly ahead of Reform in YouGov’s central estimate. However, YouGov’s accompanying voting-intention data places the Conservatives and Reform level on 21%, underlining how small movements in public support could produce significant changes under First-Past-the-Post.

Conservatives remain exposed

The result is consistent with Trafalgar Analytics’ July 2025 paper, Starmer and Future of the Right, which concluded that the Conservatives were “down, but not out” and that the contest between the Conservatives and Reform remained all to play for.

The paper found that 80 of the 121 Conservative seats won in 2024 had majorities below 5,000 votes, see Exhibit A. Those seats are exposed to different challengers (including Reform in the Midlands and North, and the Liberal Democrats across parts of southern England) but collectively demonstrate the fragility of the Conservatives’ parliamentary base.

This includes Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s constituency of North West Essex, where she was returned with a majority of only 2,610 votes over Labour in 2024.

In a theoretical maximum-loss scenario, losing all 80 Conservative seats held by fewer than 5,000 votes would leave the party with just 41 of its original 121 seats, before accounting for any gains elsewhere. Whilst this is not a constituency forecast, it demonstrates why a further Conservative collapse remains within reasonable electoral bounds.

Reform’s route runs through the Tories

Trafalgar’s analysis found that Reform’s route to a convincing parliamentary plurality requires substantial swings against both Labour and the Conservatives, but principally against the Conservatives. It estimated that Conservative support would need to fall from approximately 25% in 2024 to below 16% for Reform to secure a convincing plurality rather than another deeply hung Parliament.

The same paper noted that approximately half of 2024 Conservative voters were open to voting Reform, while 27% of Reform voters would consider voting Conservative. This overlap means both parties are competing for much of the same movable electorate.

Reform will therefore be looking beyond overtaking the Conservatives nationally. Its longer-term objective must be to dismantle the Conservatives’ remaining parliamentary base and establish itself as the principal party of the Right.

Exhibit A: 2024 UK General Election - size of majority by seat, of the winning party.

Exhibit B: Swing required from Labour’s 412 seats (2024 GE), for the second party to win at the next election.

The Conservatives retain a route back

The Conservatives’ position is precarious, but their recovery is not implausible. Trafalgar’s analysis found that a uniform five-point swing from Labour to the Conservatives could deliver approximately 85 Conservative gains, while a ten-point swing could produce between 150 and 160 gains, see Exhibit B.

From the Conservatives’ 2024 base of 121 seats, the five-point scenario could take the party to around 205 seats before accounting for losses to Reform, the Liberal Democrats or other parties. As the Conservatives finished second in numerous Labour-held constituencies, they retain a credible route back if they can stabilise and rebuild their national support.

The Conservatives consequently face two credible but sharply different futures: further losses could reduce them to a diminished parliamentary rump, while a comparatively modest movement away from Labour could restore them as the leading opposition force.

“The YouGov MRP is striking, but it is not outlandish. It reflects the extraordinary volatility of Britain’s new multi-party electoral system,” said Amy Pierce, Associate (Elections & Polling Team) at Trafalgar Analytics.

“The Conservatives are seven seats ahead of Reform in YouGov’s central projection, but 80 of the 121 seats they won in 2024 were held by fewer than 5,000 votes. Reform still has a route to breaking the Conservative Party, while the Conservatives retain a credible route back through dozens of vulnerable Labour seats.

Neither Conservative extinction nor Conservative recovery can be ruled out. The battle for the British Right remains all to play for.”

No neutral pact is possible

The overlap between the parties’ electoral strategies also limits the prospects of a lasting “Unite the Right” arrangement.

Reform needs to persuade remaining Conservative voters that it has replaced the Conservatives as the principal party of the Right. The Conservatives, meanwhile, would need to demonstrate that they remain the more credible challenger in certain Labour-facing and Liberal Democrat-facing constituencies.

Both parties consequently covet many of the same voters, donors, activists and target seats. Any electoral pact would require one party to concede constituencies (and ultimately political primacy) to the other.

Trafalgar Analytics concludes that the YouGov MRP should be understood as a snapshot of an unresolved political realignment. The Conservatives’ seven-seat advantage does not represent a decisive recovery, just as Reform’s third-place position does not mean its opportunity has passed.

Additional Information

YouGov’s September 2026 Westminster MRP, Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament were an election held tomorrow, is available here.

Trafalgar Analytics’ 2025 Electoral Data Review, Starmer’s First Year and Future of the Right, is available here.

Media Contact

Sarah Moore (Senior Communications Officer), Trafalgar Analytics

media@trafalgaranalytics.co.uk

ENDS

NOTES TO EDITORS

This release draws on Starmer’s First Year and Future of the Right, published by Trafalgar Analytics’ Elections & Polling Team in July 2025.
YouGov’s central MRP projection places Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130, Reform UK on 123, the Liberal Democrats on 71, the SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15, the Greens on nine and others on three.
Trafalgar Analytics found that 80 of the 121 Conservative seats won in 2024 had majorities below 5,000 votes.
Trafalgar’s swing analysis estimated that a uniform five-point swing from Labour to the Conservatives could produce approximately 85 Conservative gains. This was a scenario based on the 2024 constituency results, not a forecast of the next general election.
Comments to the media are provided by Amy Pierce, Associate (Elections & Polling Team) at Trafalgar Analytics.
For more information or interview requests, please contact Sarah Moore on media@trafalgaranalytics.co.uk.
Trafalgar Analytics is a British data analytics and research centre. Its work sits at the intersection between data science, economics, and political science. It believes in a data-driven approach for tackling the foremost societal, economic, and political challenges of our time.

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