Reform UK faces three paths on House of Lords reform, and Trafalgar Analytics says it must move fast to stay credible

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Think Tank: Reform UK faces three paths on House of Lords reform, and Trafalgar Analytics says it must move fast to stay credible

LONDON, 15th March 2026 — Trafalgar Analytics' Elections & Polling Team has today published a policy paper weighing up three options for reforming the House of Lords, in light of a projected Reform UK-led government in 2029. The paper builds on Trafalgar's earlier Preparing for Government report (2025), which estimated Reform would need at least 248 new peers under the current system just to govern effectively.

The paper finds that Reform UK has never settled on a single position. Nigel Farage called for outright abolition in 2022. More recently, Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf suggested many of Reform's ministers would enter government through peerages rather than Commons seats. The paper argues that whichever route Reform takes, it must be decided well before 2029, and executed quickly once in office, to avoid looking self-interested.

Three options on the table

The paper sets out three distinct paths, each with its own risks and rewards.

1. Stacking: appointing between 250 and 841 new pro-Reform peers, including a "DOGE" cohort of 88 engineer-lawyer pairs embedded across 44 government departments as Non-Executive Directors, to neutralise an obstructive chamber.

2. Replacing: creating an elected second chamber, with sub-options ranging from First-Past-the-Post to full proportional representation to Alternative Vote Plus, each carrying distinct risks of legislative paralysis if not paired with reform of the Commons itself.

3. Abolishing: moving to a unicameral legislature outright, with no second chamber at all. The paper projects savings of £85 to £160 million a year, with select committees given strengthened powers to preserve scrutiny.

"The House of Lords has become a misnomer," said Martin Beaver, Associate (Elections and Polling) at Trafalgar Analytics. "It has become a stagnant font from which an ersatz lordliness flows, and it serves nobody to keep it in its present state, save for current and aspiring lords. Reform UK has a once-in-a-century opportunity to change that, but only if it commits to a clear plan now."

Where Trafalgar takes a position

Trafalgar Analytics’ Elections and Polling Team also provides its own view. The loss of centuries of institutional heritage is regrettable, pointing to families such as the Earls of Devon, who served for over 700 years before losing their seats. That said, the team "sheds no tears" over Labour's removal of hereditary peers, arguing too many Lords stayed silent in the face of rising crime, economic stagnation, and mass migration.

The paper also cites YouGov polling showing 67% of Britons see politicians as principally out for themselves, with fewer than 5% believing politicians put their country first. It argues this makes outright abolition, historically the least-discussed option, potentially the most publicly popular one.

Additional Information

The full policy paper, "Tackling House of Lords Reform: Stack, replace, abolish? Weighing up the options," is available here.

Media Contact

Sarah Moore (Senior Communications Officer), Trafalgar Analytics

media@trafalgaranalytics.co.uk

ENDS

NOTES TO EDITORS

• The paper was authored by Trafalgar Analytics' Elections & Polling Team, with editing by Greggs Patriot, Associate (Data Science). Comments to the media provided by Martin Beaver, an Associate on Trafalgar Analytics' Elections and Polling Team.

• "Tackling House of Lords Reform: Stack, replace, abolish? Weighing up the options," is available here.

• For more information or interview requests, please contact Sarah Moore on media@trafalgaranalytics.co.uk.

• Trafalgar Analytics is a British data analytics and research centre. Its work sits at the intersection between data science, economics, and political science. It believes in a data driven approach for tackling the foremost societal, economic, and political challenges of our time.